What thematic research is for

June 2026

Thematic research has a reputation for producing long, interesting documents that change nothing. The version worth doing ends in a decision and a position size.

I did this for about seven years at Baillie Gifford, latterly as thematic research lead on a multi-asset book of around £4bn, and as a voting member on the rates and currency sleeve. The work was turning research and data into allocation calls. As a voting member I had to back those calls with real money and then live with them.

A theme is only useful when it tells you where the money goes. That means knowing what has to be true for the view to pay, what it is worth if it does against what it costs if it does not, and the cleanest instrument to express it, which is often the less obvious one. Without all three you have a thesis and no position.

The part everyone skips is uncertainty. Most forecasts are guesses with decimal places added for confidence. The exact number rarely matters. What matters is how wrong you can be and still come out ahead, and what would tell you early that you are wrong.

I do thematic and macro research for institutional clients, and advise on capital allocation.

Markets, macro and multi-asset. me@yussefrobinson.uk